So off in the preseason to San Diego we go. Right now, as you all probably know, the big story out of Sunny San Diego is the contract squabble between Vincent Jackson and the Chargers. While it is extremely rare for NFL players to actually follow through with their threats to sit out ten games of the season, or skip the season entirely, this fiasco in San Diego is about as close as it comes to actually happening. Because of this you should steer clear completely of Jackson, or at least drop him significantly down your rankings. Odds say a deal will get done before the year starts, but in Jackson’s case you have to acknowledge his determination to hold out, and the “policies” of Chargers management. Malcolm Floyd is the man who will have to step up into the #1 WR role in San Diego if Jackson sits out. He is a decent receiver with pretty good hands who, as his playing time has increased, has been learning the tricks to getting open in the NFL. A fantasy football WR 3 anyway before the Jackson stonewall, He makes a nice pickup in all leagues even if Jackson returns. Elevating to #2, according to most people in our fantasy football community, will be Legedu Naanee who showed a little promise in 2009. I say keep an eye out on Craig “Buster” Davis. He has been riddled with injuries since being drafted, and stunk up the place when he has been in the lineup, but he has some talent and this could be the year he bursts forth. As of now I have Floyd ranked WR 23 and Jackson WR 28, those are the only two I would draft right now, and it is a shame because there will be some WR fantasy points going to somebody in 2010. Not knowing who limits draftability. But, no matter what, Antonio Gates will be the tight end, again, and again with nobody else at TE to steal away his targets or even more importantly now, his red zone looks. All this Jackson Hold-Out stuff elevates Gates on my board. Already at #2, I would feel just as good with him as I would with Dallas Clark, that I have the best TE in football.

Much of the success Jackson has had has been due to the exemplary play of Philip Rivers. In my opinion he is right up there with the best QBs in the NFL and should be mentioned as such. He is a strong leader and stronger thrower, who plays with fire every game. He can sometimes, like my old idol Dan Marino, get so frustrated that his own competitiveness does him in, but don’t let this fact deter you, as this is the mark of a True Player. He will surpass Tom Brady and Matt Schaub this year to cement himself as among the elite. I have him ranked behind only Peyton Manning, Brees, and Rodgers, and the loss of Jackson doesn’t affect my ranking for him at all. In fact, I would go so far as to say that Rivers can make any decent receiver get Jackson-like numbers; he has that kind of ability.

The backfield in San Diego will look a lot different both on the field and from a fantasy football perspective. Gone to the Jets, and being given NO love in fantasy football circles is Ladainian Tomlinson. Trust me on that note to say PICK HIM UP in all your drafts, you’ll thank me later, as LT has some left in the tank. In San Diego toting the ball now will be rookie Ryan Matthews, who has been given the starting keys already, and as we speak he is catching balls so don’t automatically give his backup Darren Sproles the receptions.  Matthews is built tough, has a ton of pro-like experience, and can block and pass protect like an NFL veteran. The Chargers have already promised 250 carries to the youngster, I say it will be closer to 350 when the season is done, and if his legs hold up, remember many backs have problems at first with the longer-than-college-but-still-too-short NFL schedule. I have Matthews at RB 8, but if I consider the recent talk out of Kansas City about a timeshare split between Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones, Matthews moves up a notch. I could even argue drafting him before Frank Gore, but won’t here. Sproles I have ranked at RB 41. He has some value anyway, and would be much more valuable in the event Matthews falters or gets hurt, this latter something I never base rankings on, as it can happen to anyone at any time, on or off the field. In a 2 WR league, if you can snag Matthews as a RB 2, I would bet on your chances of making your league playoffs.

The San Diego defense and special teams are nothing special, but serviceable, especially against weaker opponents such as are found in the AF West. Take them when the Colts go. Nate Kaeding is a good kicker who will again have many opportunities, his missing of kicks at crucial times however makes me question his ability to come through in the clutch, and so I have him ranked lower than most in the fantasy world. I’ll take somebody like Lawrence Tynes or maybe even Dan Carpenter first.

Alright next time it’s off to Kansas City, where Charlie “The Hutt” Weiss has decided to make his NFL return. BBQ pits, here we come.

Why did this team falter in 2009 down the stretch? Because the veterans on the team realize just what a spoon-fed cocky arrogant little twit is this McDaniels. Brandon Marshall saw it right away, and while I realize he is no boy scout, Marshall is a more intelligent kind of the wide receiver ilk, and he has a ton of pride. That fiasco being indicative but aside, McDaniels, I think, in sum, has for this team all the motivational power of a clam. Any winning this team does in ’10 will be due to the pride and dedication of certain of its players, and will come despite the presence of McDaniels.

For fantasy football purposes keep what I said in mind. My guess is the team comes out like gangbusters again, but by week 5, you should TRADE all your Broncos players I don’t care who they are, this team with McDaniels at the helm will come apart again sooner or later. Nevertheless we gots us fantasy football work to do, so let’s proceed with the usual rundown. If you draft Brady Quinn you are a fool. So that leaves Tebow and incumbent Kyle Orton. Myself I would pass on all three, but I can envision a situation in which I grab Orton, say maybe as a stand-in until Roethlisberger gets back. Tim Tebow is the best QB on the team, but the way they are messing with his mechanics and trying to teach him new tricks, I wonder whether the McCarthy-Effect doesn’t end up destroying his promising career. What I think will happen is that the team will start with Orton for at least 5 weeks. When the losses start piling up, you will see more and more of Tebow. When Tebow, during one of these stints, wins a game more or less by himself by forgetting all the new “teaching” he is getting and reverting to his instincts, Tebow will win the job outright. Whether McDaniels will then continue his “re-education process”  after that remains to be seen. I have Orton ranked, anyway, at QB 22, higher than most, because he is not bad and he is the starter. Incidentally I have Tebow at QB 32, just behind the real star QB of this year’s draft class, Levi Brown…whom I have at QB 31 and as Sleeper of the Year (it will be close between Levi and Anthony Dixon, when they start getting on the field will decide it).

Knowshon Moreno is going higher in drafts than I would recommend. He is becoming nick-prone, and as of this writing he is injured with a bad hamstring. This is a kid I thought would be really good in the NFL. You just never know, and even your old Grampy messes up his procrastinations on occasion…hell, so did Ezekiel. I am not going to give up on him completely, though, and would take him reluctantly as my RB 2 this year unless this injury looks like it’s gonna linger. Correl Burkhalter also suffers nicks and bruises, and recently in camp experienced numbness from a hit. Injuries aside, as the odds are that neither’s is anything serious, they limit each other and will always in McDaniels’ “Belichekesque” offense. There are many reasons not to like the Broncos’ backs but you must respect Moreno’s talent at least for another year. I have Moreno ranked at RB 15, but if I draft today I take both LeSean McCoy and Ronnie Brown (I have them 16 and 17…) before him. I only look at Burkhalter if he slips through the gaps and falls to me for a RB 4, and even in that case I’d rather have somebody like Ladainian Tomlinson, Thomas Jones, or even Toby Gerhardt.

At WR in Denver there are several possibilities and no sure things. Demaryius Thomas should be on everyone’s list as he looks, smells, and is intended to be like Brandon Marshall. Whether he has the same “go get it” mentality as Marshall we will find out. Jabbar Gaffney is a reliable option that probably won’t get you killed in PPR leagues, Eddie Royal could get back to form, and perhaps Denver can revive the career of Brando Lloyd…or maybe Eric Decker can crack the lineup. The thing is, I want someone else to worry about the problem. For fantasy football purposes only Thomas is draftable, and he later than he is being drafted in most leagues. Gaffney would be worth a flier as he seems to be getting better with age. But nothing more for me. At TE Daniel Graham appears to have the job to himself and approaches sleeper status, but he never was all that reliable and this offense doesn’t have much use for a TE, so there too I let you take the gamble. My rankings are: Thomas WR 36, Gaffney WR 56, and Royal WR 76. Graham I have at TE 25.

Matt Prater is a good kicker and you could do worse, but don’t reach for him. The Broncos defense and special teams will go overdrafted, don’t you be the person who does it.

Next time some cheerier fantasy possibilities in the sparkly city of San Diego.

Well, screw that I say loudly. Discrimination based on color was always stupid and still is stupid if but in a reverse sort of way (at least in pro sports…). Al Davis has always been a promoter of race equality. Before it became popular, then chic,  and now even overkill if not downright reverse discrimination–by the likes of the force-feedings such as provided right now by ESPN and other Networks–Al Davis risked his livelihood, reputation, and money putting people of color in prominent roles where those roles really mattered. He is for me the definition of old school and maverick and we need more like him. He is refreshing. Compare, for example, Jerry Jones, another owner often in the limelight, as prominent on the sidelines as the Holy Cowboys Cheerleaders themselves. By comparison, Jones is a media darling, and he must know it because of his 27th shot of botox to the face and other cosmetic adjustments. Jones dresses as if out of GQ magazine, Davis out of the NFL apparel catalog. You know Jones is loaded with cash by the size of his entourage and flash. If you saw Davis, you would think he makes 50k a year tops.

So as long as Davis owns the Raiders I gots me a soft spot in me old teeny heart for the Raiders. I want them to succeed and I want Davis to snatch the Lombardi Trophy out of God-Dell’s hands on national television.

But that probably won’t happen. See, the problem here in Oakland is at least two-fold. Davis is too loyal to certain people, for one, and for the other, he gets absolutely no help from outside the organization. If you had such a big toy you would want to play with it, too, so we can’t fault him for playing scout on occasion–most owners do it in one way or another more than you realize. In short, his scouting sucks because he won’t fire these clowns whom I sometimes think are on his payroll but for all practical purposes are working against him.

What, am I down here already? I’ll be doggone I ain’t even mentioned me one gosh-darned Oakland Raiders player yet! I will have to resort now, then, to speed mode, so y’all pay attention! QB Jason Campbell is an upgrade and will see middle-of-the-road numbers but has the speed at WR and RB to elevate the whole passing game. He’s going VERY late in drafts and you could get him with your last pick. The problem there is that while Campbell is an upgrade he is not a special talent and still looks lost sometimes in the face of complicated coverages and/or circumstances. Being that the passing game will improve, probably, so also will running lanes possibly open for maiden-in-waiting Darren McFadden, one of a long line of those so-called “superior talents” who just never quite make the grade in the NFL. If McFadden will do anything, at least for Oakland, it will be this year, though, so this is the year to take a chance on him. He will likely be splitting time with Michael Bush, who I think is overrated in fantasy circles just a tad. Of the three I take a chance on McFadden but only after the likes of Hightower and Cadillac are already gone.

The WR situation also should improve in Oakland. For fantasy football purposes I look at Louis Murphy as a serviceable WR 4 and may take a shot on Heyward-Bey with my last pick in deeper leagues. Let someone else take a chance on Chaz Schilens.

Now with the Oakland defense/special teams and kicker Sebastian Janikowski come some bargain-price fantasy jewels. You could take either with your last pick, and both could turn out to be big producers in 2010. Keep them in mind if you need a kicker/defense late in your drafts. The defense is stocked with players, and the strong-legged Janikowski will have even more opportunities as this offense opens up. For that reason, keep all the Raiders skill position players on your “possible pickups” lists after your drafts.

Next time we saddle up and wagon-train over out to Denver, maybe get a Mile High.

First of all, this is a professional football team. It has players who are pro level on offense, and some real heavy hitters on defense. There are some gems to be found here, just play your cards right. The team seems committed to Josh Freeman at QB, and he has shown signs of being a serviceable signal caller. He has been ranked last of all NFL starting quarterbacks, or nearly last, by all fantasy gurus. Is he the worst? No, he is not. Should you draft him? No, you should not, although there are some factors that might make you want to take a second look at him for your QB2. Obviously, for instance, this team will need to throw the football to stay in games. They will try to run the football a lot, but unless the defense has improved a bit as a unit since last season they won’t be doing much stopping of anyone. So, the smart money says Freeman will have to let it rip more often than anyone in that organization would like, I am sure. Still, that will mean interceptions, but also yards and TDs. I have Freeman ranked at QB 30, but he will likely move ahead of Jake Delhomme and Sam Bradford the closer we get to the real drafts. I think you could do worse if you want to wait until your last pick and draft him as your QB2, as there is some unrealized potential here. If he had stronger WRs he would be ranked exactly in the Matt Moore range.

Speaking of those Tampa Bay wideouts….well who are they anyway? There currently ELEVEN, that’s right, ELEVEN WRs at the Bucs training camp. Of those, we will discuss only Arrelious Benn, Mike Williams, Sammie Stroughter, Maurice Stovall, Reggie Brown, and Michael Clayton, as even most of these shouldn’t even be on your fantasy football draft board. Rookies Arrelious Benn and Mike Williams are the projected starters, and they should be your main targets on your draft day. Both can make an instant impact and, in fact, must in order for this team to have any chance of winning any games. Both are being drafted fairly late in mock drafts (round 11-12 range) and only in deep leagues. I say take a chance on one or the other, keep an eye on the preseason games and see who Freeman likes to go to, or rather, who the routes are being designed for. I have them ranked Benn at WR 50 and Williams at WR 90, but both will be moving up my list as we approach real drafts. You might also want to keep at least half an eye on the veteran Reggie Brown who, while never s superstar, has experience and might be asked to set an example for the rookies. Stroughter, too, should be on your radar.

The real wide receiver in Tampa Bay, though, is a tight end we all know as Kellen Winslow. He is expert at making himself available to his QB on every play, and is a shoe-in, if his legs hold up, for at least 60 catches and 5 scores. At first this offseason he was going very late in drafts, but now he is creeping up the boards and going around Brent Celek range, so if you want him Celek is your signal. I find him a bit similar option to Owen Daniels because while there are more passes likely to be flying in Houston for Daniels to grab, Winslow is and probably will remain the #1 receiving option for this Bucs team.  I have Winslow at TE 9.

But where you can find a real bargain on this team is their main running back Cadillac Williams. His stock this offseason, too, was very low, but also now is beginning to rise as more people realize he will likely get all the goal-line work and most of the rushes for this team, a team that will run the ball as much as possible. Cadillac is also a very good receiver out of the backfield, and is going low enough in drafts that you take him as a RB 2 with no sweat, but you’re going to need to hustle now to get him as your #3, the ideal place to draft him. I have the Caddy at RB 33, and expect him to move up to Portis range (RB 30) before I do most of my real drafts. Derrick Ward is still in town, but myself I let someone else have the good fella. The Bucs just won’t be on the field on offense long enough to muster up two fantasy relevant RBs.

The kicker for the Bucs should be Matt Bryant, but don’t bet the house there., and you don’t really want to draft the Bucs’ kicker anyway, do you? Same with the defense…let someone grab them, then sit back and smile.

Alright, two divisions to go and then we can wrap up these preseason thoughts. Next time we begin westerly, and start with the AFC West at the Oakland Raiders.

When you consider Drew Brees, you see a QB who is at or near the top, or should be drafted near the top, of all fantasy football drafts. The offense he is in allows him opportunities, and his head coach allows him choices and freedom. This translates to big fantasy points, and in fact these traits are shared by all of the top-tier QBs. He is for me, for fantasy football purposes, as acceptable as Peyton Manning or Aaron Rodgers–or for that matter Philip Rivers, Tom Brady, and Tony Romo (and of course Favre if he comes back…) as my starter. Draft him with confidence, but whether he or one of those other guys I mentioned—or perhaps someone else—end up leading the NFL in fantasy points is a real crapshoot. Any one of those guys could do it, but which we can only wait and see. As they say in real football, for fantasy football too, this is why we play the games.

The New Orleans running backs are pretty good but the nature of the offense prevented any of them from taking the lead role last year. Pierre Thomas is the closest the team has to a workhorse back, and the most explosive player in the backfield is Reggie Bush. Lynell Hamilton is also still here but Mike Bell has been traded to the Eagles (to back up LeSean McCoy, by the way, and that is why Bell is being underdrafted in fantasy football leagues so far. he has real value there…). For your fantasy drafts, you should only consider Bush and Thomas, in my opinion, in that order for 2010. Yes, Reggie Bush has been called a disappointment, and “over-rated” by some, but he has talent and knows how to play the game. He is being drafted a little high for me, but mostly Thomas is going WAY too early for me to even sniff a shot at drafting him. I just think this team will be unable to stop anyway, confident in that their offense will bail them out again, and so they will have to play through the air, which means more playing time for Reggie Bush. Understand I am swinging for the fences here, and don’t bet the farm on it, but for 2010 yer old Grampy is taking Bush right at Thomas range in drafts, and personally I would like to see you snag Thomas and leave Bush to little ol’ me. For the record, as of right now, I have Thomas at RB 23 and Bush at RB 27, but Chris Wells, Cedric Benson, and maybe even Jahvid Best, who I have in-between the two, carry for me as much value as Thomas. And yes I have all those players ranked a bit below the average, for my PPR format.

Wide receivers spell gold in New Orleans, the question is who you gonna hire to do your mining? Marques Colston seems the safest bet, he is big and strong even by NFL standards, and he has hands like glue. Opposite him will likely be a combination of players, a rotation involving Robert Meachem, Lance Moore, and Devery Henderson. Expect Meachem and Henderson to be used alternatively with Moore playing a slot-like position. For me this give Lance “Moore” value than he is currently being given credit for in fantasy football mock drafts, moreso when you consider Brees like to go to him in the clutch. In fact in PPR leagues I see his value almost equal to Meachem, and for me Henderson is not even draftable under such a format. Everyone is making too big a deal over “targets” here, as nearly every team has as much depth. Take Colston as a marginal #1 WR, take a flier on Moore while everyone else is sleeping (or parroting) and drafting Legedu Naane and Brandon Tate. I have them ranked Colston WR 11, Meachem WR 31, Moore WR 38, and Henderson WR 41. As for TEs in New Orleans, which they utilize quite readily, we need to watch the preseason still and see 1) the status of Jeremy Shockey’s health, 2) the performance of the rookie Jimmy Graham, namely can he win the starting job from Shockey and hamburger TE Dave Thomas? If he does Graham has the most upside, but for now, draft Shockey reluctantly as your #2 TE and watch the developments.

The New Orleans Saints defense and special teams has value because of the big plays they provide. If you want a defense that might allow over 30 points every week, but which gives you a chance for a special teams TD or defensive score, then this D is for you. I take them after San Francisco is gone and just before Cincinnati.

Garret Hartley should be reached for early. He has a good leg, tons of opportunities, and kicks in a dome half the time for one of the most powerful offenses in the NFL. Only Mason Crosby, this year, has the same kicker value and slightly less, because of the weather in Green Bay.

Next scribing I’ll ponder a bit ’bout them there Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and we’ll finish up our sweep of the NFC South.

Of course there is a possibility the past can change this year, and some signs are in place that the Panthers will become a different team this year. New quarterback Matt Moore showed flashed last year that he has the kind of moxie necessary to win in the NFL. He will be allowed to take more chances this year. Moore is a QB who will improve with time behind an offensive line that protects him purty darn well. He may always be limited by this system, but when the Panthers find themselves trailing in ballgames in 2010, they will have no choice but to rely on Moore, or his competition rookie Jimmy Clausen. I like Moore in this battle, at least for this year, as Clausen is for me going to be just another Brady Quinn. Both players have fragile confidence issues, so I wouldn’t fear Moore losing is job, as some do, to the rookie from Notre Dame. As is, I like Moore more AND more as the season’s real fantasy football drafts approach, so much so that I would have no problem taking him over the likes of MORE established prospects like even Carson Palmer. What keeps me from shooting him even higher up the chats at QB is, once again, that Carolina system. I have him currently ranked at QB 27, but were I in need I would have no problem waiting on him in my drafts and letting guys I currently have ranked ahead of him like Young, Leinart, and Campbell go to my opponents. I just don’t see much difference there, and I think Moore will improve and also improve the passing game of the Panthers, which might have to open up once teams figure out how to tackle…

DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. The names ring frustration to every fantasy football player worth his salty pretzels.  Both backs are excellent. Their different styles compliment each other and together they give the Panthers the most feared one-two punch in the backfield in the NFL. If the NFL is indeed going to such a RB-by-committee as some say, the Panthers rule the jungle. This presumption might be merely made by hype, however, and yer old Grampy thinks it ain’t so much that teams are going to two backs by design, but rather because the blokes just can’t land themselves–or have patience enough with–a bellcow RB. If I can’t have Adrian Peterson, or Frank Gore, or MJD, I will grab two guys who can do the job. It’s fantasy football logic, and by my estimation, the real reason behind the move in the NFL. Both Williams and Stewart have had problems staying healthy, so that criterion is a wash. The carries are split almost evenly. The one advantage is that in past seasons it has been Williams who has been on the field on passing downs, and so Williams who usually catches all the passes. In a PPR league he has therefore a bit more value. Now for a long time the preseason I have had Stewart ranked ahead of Williams. Remember he was brought into this league to supposedly supplant Williams, and were Grampy to get psychological he would say maybe the two trying to outperform each other increases both of their production levels. It’s a capitalistic ploy, the appeal to competition, in order to make each worker better. Whenever you want someone to run his or her fastest 40 time, you put them on the track with other runners.

All this said, I currently have Stewart at RB 17 and Williams at RB 11 in my rankings. So far in mocks I have yet to land either, as people are taking them higher than I think they belong. Call me crazy but I would rather have Addai. Moreno, Turner, and Greene, even in a PPR, than either. Understand I think Williams and Stewart are better backs. But this is fantasy football, and I can’t worry that my RBs TDs are being taken by someone else. They limit the value of each other.

At WR in Carolina is all-world wideout Steve Smith, who should perform back at an elite level in 2010, and either sophomore Dwayne Jarrett or, my sleeper pick here, rookie Brandon LaFell on the other side. The #3 wide receiver on this team should be of NO concern to you. Don’t worry about the chemistry between Moore and his receivers, as Moore is already an upgrade over Jake Delhomme there. Smith will end up around WR 15 in my rankings, and LaFell a late-round flier in deeper leagues, As for TE, you’ll have to keep an eye on Rosario and his competition, and how Moore interacts with them. They could have free agent pickup value.

The Carolina defense lost some power in free agency this year, and was never a fantasy stalwart for the same reasons many other defenses are dreaded in fantasy football circles. The Panthers are a well-coached, adequate unit on defense most of the time, the problem is they do not make all those turnovers a growing fantasy football team needs. So, let someone else take the chance there. John Kasay is a respectable kicker with a good leg but seems to be nearing the end of the line. He should also be at the end of your line of draftable kickers.

OK off to work. Next time up it’s the world champion New Orleans Saints, and all the fantasy football goodness they provide.

Leading the charge for Hotlanta will be Matt Ryan, the 3rd year pro who couldn’t quite improve on his rookie season last year. He looked out of sync at times, and whoever is telling him to throw the ball away needs to let up a bit and let the kid take some chances. In 2009, by my unofficial calculations, Ryan completed 17 passes to ballboys and sideline reporters. Yes, sometimes you have to throw the ball away, it’s true, but in the NFL the coverage is always tight, and sometimes a quarterback has to give his receivers a chance make plays. Once again, it appears to me, we see a coaching staff more intent on having its multi-million dollar QB not lose games rather than have him go out and win them. Confidence is a big boon for a QB in the NFL; making your signal caller have to check himself all the time could be disastrous. Anyway our game here is fantasy football, and for fantasy football purposes I have Matt Ryan ranked at QB 15. I expect this to change slightly by the time our real drafts arrive, but not much. If I had to select Ryan as anything more than a backup, I would be sure to grab someone else at QB who can win for me with my very next pick, or soon thereafter. It’s not that I don’t trust Ryan to stay healthy: I do and think he will. But I think that this team will want to play ball control and run the ball. Last year was a bit of an aberration because of injuries.

Speaking of injuries, Michael Turner is, by most all accounts so far this offseason, healthy, in great shape, and ready to play. That’s good news, because I know several players who took him very early in fantasy drafts in 2009, and who were VERY disappointed with their pick. Even before he went down, he was killing quite a few fantasy football teams.  Surprisingly, Snelling did not do too bad in Turner’s stead, y’all, but Michael Turner is going too early in mock drafts for me to even consider him. I see too many better options at the draft spots in which he is being taken–usually in the 2nd round–and just simply pass on him. I am, slowly, inching him back up my running back rankings, after all he is the Falcons’ unquestioned starter on a team that likes to run the ball. But something was missing from his game when he WAS healthy last year, and why he doesn’t catch more passes–something he did very well as a Charger–is to me a mystery. In fact the screen pass or quick shot over the middle to a back, namely Tuner, ought to be used a lot more in that Falcon attack. Such a move would add a new dimension to their offense, and open up even more things.

Currently I have Turner ranked RB 14, in a virtual dead heat with Knowshon Moreno and Shonn Greene. In a PPR league there is a chance he could surprise and grab some of those passes, but his value is diminished because likely he will not. Therefore in such leagues, as of right now, I would grab Moreno, and perhaps even LeSean McCoy, before Turner. But he is, for me , a solid #2 RB, if you can get him there, and maybe you can if you pick towards the end of the draft. There would be worse strategies. I do not draft Snelling or Norwood this year, but if Turner shows signs of losing it, or gets hurt again, I would not hesitate to grab—Snelling.

Roddy White is a consummate player and a pro. He comes to play every game, and for what he lacks in bulk or raw speed, he makes up for with nifty moves and amazing catches. Sound familiar? Yes, you could say the same thing about Jerry Rice, for instance. These guys just can get open, it is as simple as that. Roddy fits that mold, he is also the primary target for a decent-throwing QB, and he gets looks around the goal line. He is for me the 8th ranked WR in fantasy football, and as time to kickoff winds down he is moving up the rankings charts which, by the way, I will be amending after I make this post. He is the ideal WR 2, but if you have him as your WR 1 you could do a heck of a lot worse. He is being drafted in mocks at 2nd or 3rd round range , so don’t wait too long. White’s running mate Michael Jenkins usually gives you a surprising game or two, then fades again into the background. He could have increased value if Ryan goes to him more, but draft him only as a late-round flier. Someone like Brandon LaFell, or Arrelious Benn, for instance, has more interest to me at that point in the draft, but clearly Jenkins is a safe pick that will get you 2-3 catches a game and 30-50 yards. In fact watch out for Harry Douglas, who has flashed some real receiver skills on the occasions he has actually been on the field. This cat has big play ability, or had, we shall see. Keep HIM on your radar.

The days of Michael Vick to Alge Crumpler being long gone in football years, Tony Gonzalez has shown he can still play and is still a monster threat in the red zone. The tight end is going drafted very late in mocks so far, and one option is to let TE Jermichael Finley fly by you, draft a good WR or RB in that slot, and grab Gonzalez on the way back. If you want to try this strategy, keep an eye on Finley (or Witten, as your rank goes), and then make your move. Some expect Tony G to show signs of his age, and he has and admits it, but he can still play and benefit your fantasy football team. I have him ranked at TE 6, ahead of Owen Daniels and Brent Celek.

The Atlanta Defense and Special Teams are middle-of-the-road, and you should only draft them if you intend to use them in conjunction with another defense. Matt Bryant should be the kicker, if he can return from injury, otherwise Steven Hauschka has been hired on just in case. Neither should be touched by your purty little pickers in fantasy football drafts, young ‘uns. Grampy says so.

Here’s to success in your drafts, the real ones should be starting in a neighborhood near you any day now. I was ready in March.

Next up in the NFC South, the Carolina Panthers.

Good news has struck Tennessee today, as all rumors have it that Chris Johnson will soon sign a new deal with the Titans and should be in town for the start of training camp. That’s good because the Titans are otherwise a very strange team to figure out for fantasy football purposes. Nearly from top to bottom this squad is a fantasy crap shoot, and other than for the aforesaid Johnson, drafted Tennessee players in 2010 could wind up being either steals or wasted picks, depending on how things turn out. Overall the team has talent and I think an excellent coach in Jeff “The Rabbi” Fisher. But where this team stands, and where it is headed, will truly be told only once the season begins.

Manning the point for the Titans will be the revitalized Vince Young. A serious head case any way you look at it, he still has work to do on timing patterns and in deciphering defensive schemes if he wants to be a top-tier quarterback. Many of Vincenzo’s limitations were obscured last season because opponents concentrated their efforts on stopping (make that rather “trying to stop”…) Chris Johnson. Young did not have to toss the pigskin much at all, actually, and he did not have to even so much “manage the game” as just not screw too much stuff up. Whether he really has QB talent or not we still really don’t know, as it has been still his athleticism that has made him special. While this athleticism is valued everywhere, for an NFL quarterback it’s not the be all and end all of success. Still, this is fantasy football we are yappin’ about, and all things considered Young for me is a valuable backup QB along the lines and production level of the David Garrard we just discussed last post. He could develop into a starter if the stars are aligned right and nobody messes with Young’s fragile little psyche (which anxieties are eased by the “purple drank”), but just as easily he could be exposed as a glorified collegiate running back and nothing more; it is entirely possible that Young exists in the NFL at all because of one big college Bowl game. So taking it all into consideration, I draft Young only as a backup and fill-in player. If he does get some major gravy and become a passing force, I would consider myself as having witnessed a minor miracle. For me it is a difficult pick between Young and Garrard, and I have them ranked QB 26 and QB 25, respectively. Kerry Collins is still around to back up Young, BTW, but if you draft him this season you must be on the Valdosta moonshine, kiddies.

The real mustard on the hot dog that is Tennessee fantasy football is Chris Johnson, whom you all should know was first scouted out and graded as SUPERSTAR by yours truly back in 2008…where because of my genius he wasted a spot on my bench half the year while Barry White (or some dude…) stole all the touchdowns. See, that’s the problem with noticing talent these days. You have to hope the people actually paid to do so have as good an eye. Who the best players are said to be, and who the best players really are, methinks are not always the same players. Fantasy football is then only partly about evaluating talent. There must also be a part that notices which scrub is nevertheless placed into a situation where he can benefit poor fantasy football players. It’s a science, I say. Nevertheless, for 2010 Chris Johnson is a top running back to own. He is a truly gifted natural runner with excellent vision, anticipation, patience, and suddenness. He can, furthermore, take it for Six any time he touches it, and that from either around the end, off a screen pass, or straight up the guts. I think he could go without working out and eating donuts and still be able to do what he does. Chris Johnson is a natural runner. The only possible negative is that he is only 5′ 11″ which, if you listen to the “talent evaluators” and “scouts,” should make him susceptible to more injuries than a bigger back. But if you look at the statistics, you will see that with very little deviation big dudes and little dudes in the NFL and in the NCAA get injured with about the same frequency. I think if they start telling Johnson to “add weight” or “muscle-up” I will begin to cringe as they destroy what was already good as it was.

So, ahem, draft Johnson with the #1 pick in your draft and anywhere after, if you get so lucky. Personally I don’t think, in the end, that the gap is as large between him and the next 3 or 4 RBs as everyone is making it out to be, nor would I bet the house on his achieving the same success he had in 2009. But he is a solid unquestioned starter RB, on a running team, who catches passes, and who is electric. And there is that ever so slight, but in his case, very REAL possibility that we have yet to see what Chris Johnson can really do. That possibility is enough for me to take him #1 overall in 2010.

Among the receivers in Tennessee who will be catching passes from Vice Young are Justin Gage, Natie “Boom Boom” Washington, and Kenny the Britt. The Britt has good size and speed and is the best chance of a breakout player out of this bunch. Gage is steady enough for you not to want to draft him, and Washington caught more TDs last year than people acknowledge and may actually benefit most from Britt’s maturation. The problem is that Young’s accuracy remains an issue, and 3 feet open doesn’t mean much if your QB throws the ball three feet over your head or into the dirt. My guess is that Young develops a serviceable rapport with Britt, and he is the only one of the three I take a chance on drafting in my fantasy football drafts this season. But keep an eye on Washington in TD leagues, and Gage in PPR leagues. Expect a battle for playing time between Bo Scaife and Jared Cooke. Scaife is barely draftable in PPR leagues, meaning a good backup TE if you get needy and nothing more, he has no more potential to reach. Cook, however, is a player to watch, and if he could manage to put it all together and unseat Scaife some time this year, he most assuredly will be someone to pick up during this season, and a top prospect in 2011. He has that kind of potential.

The Tennessee defense and Special Teams is middle-of-the-road although they do boast some good players for IDP leagues. They are always a well-coached team, they just never seem to force many turnovers. Kicker Rob Bironas has good accuracy and a strong leg and plays for a team that stalls in the red zone, and has draft value at around kicker 10. For all the Titans except Chris Johnson, expect their success in fantasy football to mirror their success in the win column.

Let’s stay in the south, ya hear, and next time go to the NFC and take a gander at them there Hotlanta Falcons.

Regardless of all that politics and money stuff, whippersnappers, I am here to tell you that the Jaguars are no push-over when the actual games are played. They have what I consider to be an excellent, if a bit wishy-washy coach in ex-Vikings linebacker Jack Del Rio, a solid running back, and a pair of decent WRs. The problems with this team arise on defense, especially defensing the pass and overall holding onto a lead once they get it. But for us, here, our concern is fantasy football, and for that we don’t care if these felines play in Arkansas. What matters is if they put up fantasy points, ain’t that right y’all?

Quarterback David Garrard is a fine example of middle-of-the-road. He can manage a game just fine, might even surprise you with a run or two, or a special throw here and there. But this Jaguars squad is not built to come from behind, and Garrard is one of the main reasons why. He just can’t run the two-minute drill with any consistent efficiency, and it is for this reason also that Garrard has never had that monster fantasy QB season. You need those full quarters of throwing the ball once in a while to get those huge passing stats. Because the Jags don’t throw the ball all that much anyway, Garrard is not used to throwing his way to victory. All this being said, for fantasy football purposes I suggest that Garrard is going under-drafted so far in mocks this year. I expect his passing numbers to improve, or this will be the last year David Garrard runs the Jaguar offense. The combination of the team’s needing to win, and Del Rio’s job at stake, will open up this offense a bit. Garrard runs effectively and occasionally even for TDs, which boost his stats, and if you look at the current QB crop you can have worse options. For fantasy drafts, I recommend Garrard as a solid #2 QB, and even as an effective player as part of a rotation at QB on your fantasy team. Currently I have Garrard as QB 25, but that will change, and I expect him to hover around the QB 20 range before the real drafts arrive in a few weeks. If for some reason Garrard gets even worse this year, or even if he performs the same but the team is still losing, expect drastic measures to be taken, namely, expect newly-signed backup QB Luke McCown to get a real shot at a starting gig. He is feisty, no worse a thrower than Garrard, and he could thrive in a role such the Jags QB role where he is not asked to win games by himself. So, draft Garrard as a backup, but if this team starts losing, dump him fast before his own coach does. As for McCown, don’t draft him, but watch the Garrard situation closely.

The true strength of this team, right now, is at RB, and this strength comes primarily from one man, Maurice Jones-Drew, a perfect example of why scouts are idiots. Here is a smaller man who can play and stay healthy, who has proven since he has been in this league that smaller men can have success in the NFL. He is built like a stone, catches everything thrown his way, has a nose for the goal line, and is awfully hard to bring down because of his squat build. Last season he provided as much statistical goodness for fantasy owners as did Adrian Peterson, and he was even more consistent with his production from week to week than was AP. Except for Ray Rice he caught as many passes as any RB, which makes him PPR gold. I have MJD ranked at #2 right now ahead of Adrian Peterson, albeit barely, and I see the two as interchangeable only because AP has recently began staying in the lineup on passing downs. Otherwise I opt for Drew, as while his team won’t be as much a scoring machine as the Vikings, neither will he lose a lot of chances to the passing game. As I expect the return of Favre once “working in the offseason” and “training camp” are about done, that means many Vikings scores will be coming through the air. Not so in Jacksonville, and when this team nears the goal line, it’s MJD who gets the pigskin. Draft MJD anywhere in the first 5 picks and rest easy as you will now be the owner of a fantasy football contender. Backup Rashad Jennings has some skills, and might relieve MJD a bit more this year than last, but only grab him in your fantasy football draft if you want Jones-Drew insurance. He would have a ton of value if MJD got injured, but we can’t really procrastinate using health as a contingent. As with all my picks, I expect and assume healthy players. As such, pass on Jennings during your draft, and snag MJD like a hawk does young rabbits, kids.

I really like what number one receiver and Jones-Drew’s similarly-hyphenated teammate Mike Sims-Walker brings to this team. He is big and fast enough, has decent hands, and has hops along with a desire to grab the ball. If he could display more consistency, not all his fault, he would be an elite NFL receiver. Not only does Sims-Walker need Garrard to throw him better and more passes, he also needs running-mate Mike Thomas to improve on the other side, to help assuage some of the double-teams more and more teams will throw his way. As such Thomas is a sleeper in fantasy drafts, a guy who has a position, and who is slowly gaining production. If during the early weeks of the season you see Thomas and not Sims-Walker getting the fantasy gravy, rejoice because that means soon MSW will be the star again. If he can learn to better beat line chucks, and split double teams, he will be a monster will Sims-Walker. But just too many contingencies to place him all that high on your fantasy football draft list. I currently have Sims-Walker at WR 17, and find it difficult choosing between him and Hines Ward, although bear in mind I have BOTH ranked ahead of fantasy football expert-favorite Greg “Killed My Teams Last Year” Jennings AND Vincent “Whoa Nellie” Jackson. I feel good about my rankings, but I like to take risks and chances, something you may have gathered if you have read all these posts. You don’t win by being a follower (hello, Wildcat users…), and if one thing is for sure, it’s that every year the “experts” get things wrong. Check out some last year’s musings by one fella by the name of Kiper, and the procrastinations of a few “Pay Me to Have Fun With My Hobby and Spew My Otherwise Parroted Opinions About Fantasy Football” DOT COMS to realize how big money and big fame is being accorded people who otherwise have no literary or rational skills. In fact, you are better off explaining fantasy football to your grandma, hand her last season’s stats and a pencil, and see what SHE tella ya, kids. One man works, one hundred make a living off of him. Hell, it works for the Port Authority.

So back to business, draft Mike Sims-Walker as a firm #2 WR with the potential to be a #1.  Maybe snag Thomas at the end of your draft if you are desperate at wide receiver. As for tight end, Marcedes Lewis is serviceable and nothing more, plus the presence of “the other” Zach Miller and still lingering-around Ernie Wilford make Lewis’ value minimal.

The Jacksonville Defense/Special Teams should be avoided in fantasy football drafts until they demonstrate some of that head-hunting mentality their head coach once did. Josh Scobee could surprise in this offense. If he gets more consistent, he is almost draftable.

Alright, Monday calls. Next time we finish up the AFC South with a round trip ticket to TAYNASAY. Tennessee Titans, here we come.

And so in 2010 I expect the Colts to continue the “let Peyton win it” strategy, which means lots of passing yards and TDs. Because of this I have Peyton Manning, for fantasy football purposes, as a top-tier QB, namely at #3, behind only Brees and Rodgers. But to be honest with you, if I could be sure to be able to snag Manning in the third round–as he has been going sometimes in mock drafts–I would wait and pass on Brees and Rodgers.

Helping Manning a bit on offense is Joseph Addai, a better back than most people want to give him credit for being. He has good hands, has developed into an excellent pass protector, and runs very hard behind a line that doesn’t always give him a lot of help. I have Addai ranked higher than almost everyone at RB 12, but bear in mind my rankings are for PPR leagues, and for PPR leagues Addai has increased value.  Helping him out in the backfield are Donald Brown and the resurgent Mike Hart. In fact it is the presence of Hart that keeps me from elevating DBrown very high up my RB rankings. Everyone knows what Brown can do, and that is, basically, what Addai can do, with maybe a little more edge speed. Hart, however, is a proven competitor, and if his reconstructed leg manages to hold up, I for one would not be the least surprised if HE ends up second in rushing on this team in 2010. Yes, I make the bold claim, because Hart, had he not been hurt, would today be the lead back for the Colts. Take nothing away from Brown. But do some research on Hart and see his accomplishments and watch some film on him. You will see a special player. So to make a long story short, in the running back department, for fantasy football, you should really only draft Addai from the Colts, and if you do as some suggest and grab Donald Brown, you are chasing the hype and last year’s numbers. But since hype is heard even by coaches and player personnel people, maybe you won’t do so bad. Myself I draft Addai right with some big names like Shonn Greene, Michael Tuner, and Knowshon, actually AHEAD of all those backs. The reason? Anything bad you can say about Addai can also be said about those other players. Even Turner’s load will decrease, he will share time, and he catches no passes. Same with Greene. As for Knowshon, it seems he can’t shake Correl Burkhalter. And the creme de la creme (for those Pierre lovers…) of it all? Well which back’s team moves the ball the best?

There ya go, kids, logic lived.

But ‘t ain’t so easy when picking wide receivers from the Colts. Here we may have a genuine fantasy football travesty. WR is apparently this team’s strong point, but let’s recall that Manning can make any WR succeed. All you need is 6 inch separation and open hands, and that is considered OPEN in Manningville. Reggie Wayne, a shoe-in for at least 90 catches, last I heard was considering holding out for more money. And right well he should, because if Peyton retires before he re-signs he won’t see coconuts, kids. Manning made Wayne like he is making Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon, and two season ago made Anthony Gonzalez. Call it like it is. Anyway, if Wayne’s manor signs he is a top 3 WR in any format. If he does not, the Colts’ offense won’t miss him a bit, with Garcon taking his spot, Gonzalez on the other side, and Collie in the slot. In fact were I a Colts personnel man, I would trade him for a few defenders, and save myself some dough.

But, as things will probably go, halfway through training camp Wayne will sign. This means draft Wayne as a a WR 1, but be more careful than usual because any way you look at it the Colts are going to want to give more playing time to their younger players. Personally I like Collie very much, he reminds me of a young fast Wes Welker who always seems to get open, always seems to catch the ball, and always seems to fall forward…for first downs. He would be valuable in any offense. Garcon has good long speed and his hands seem good enough, but his playing time is tied into the others and will likely be more situational, such as in 4 WR sets. Anthony Gonzalez is recovered from his injuries and making a lot of noise in workouts so far. Fantasy football scrambled eggs, kids. My observations on what has been happening in mock drafts so far are that Garcon is going too high (I saw him taken before Hines Ward, and always before Donald Driver!), Wayne in his usual spot, Collie varies (if you want him don’t wait too long, he is a “round 10″ or “not at all” in mock drafts…), and in a few mocks people have snagged Gonzalez, whose position also has varied considerably. Yer old Grampy, what does he do? He lets everybody grab the other three, then snags Collie and rests easy. My rankings are Wayne WR 4, Collie WR 35, Garcon WR 37, Gonzalez WR 90.

And don’t forget about Dallas Clark, vying for targets, the #1 TE in PPR leagues. The WRs may change, Clark is almost always in the game on passing downs. He could be drafted when your fellow leaguers are taking their WR 2, and you will have finagled yerself an advantage.

The Colts defense is a decent play in fantasy football, especially at home and against less offensive-minded opponents. As such they make a fine Defense/Special Team #2 for your fantasy football team. As of press time I do not know for sure if Vinatieri will continue to kick for the Colts, which would be his primary value, as he has lost much of his leg strength and accuracy. I think I stay away from the situation, and in the red zone this team is just too efficient.

Next time we enter the cage with the Jaguars, the NFL’s version of the Montreal Expos?